By 2030 the Confederation of the European Bicycle Industry (CONEBI) are predicting that electric bike sales will surpass car sales. By 2025 the e-bike market is expected to grow to 6.5 million units.
ACEA (the European Automobile Manufacturers Association) released information that the car market decrease by 23.7% down to 9.9 million units in 2020, however it is impossible to decipher the degree to which the pandemic had an effect on this figure. Another estimate, displaying the decline in the car market is from Bloomberg, whom predicate 2021 sales to finish down 15% compared to 2019. Taking into account the pandemic, the car industry has only seen single digit growth in the last few years anyway. In comparison to the electric bike market, which is predicated to triple by 2025, it is easy to see how one may overtake the other in the coming decade.
Bringing things a little closer to home, in the UK one round in every five that was spent on bicycles, between January and October 2020, was spent on an electric bike. During 2020, and even into 2021, the demand for electric bikes has been at an all time hight but the supply has been difficult due to the pandemic, meaning the figures could have been even higher.
To further boost the potential heights of electric bike sales, the Bicycle Association has pressured the government to subsidise electric bikes, suggesting that a £250 financial incentive towards an e bike could assist in doubling sales. Since this suggestion, the government has toyed with extending the 30% subsidy currently available on other forms of electric transport to include electric bikes.
Scotland has taken further measures but allowing those in low emission zones to apply for a maximum of two £500 grants (totalling £1000) to purchase a bike, electric bike or even public transport vouchers. This seems like an excellent measure to combat the argument that moving towards electric transport so quickly is unfairly punishing those who cannot afford to upgrade or switch.